Here’s a bold statement: Exit polls might just be the most misleading game in town, and Tejashwi Yadav isn’t buying it. But here’s where it gets controversial—while most exit polls for the 2025 Bihar assembly elections predict a clear victory for the NDA, Yadav, the Mahagathbandhan’s chief ministerial candidate, flat-out rejects these projections. In a recent press conference, he didn’t hold back, calling out the timing and methodology of these polls, which were released even as voters were still standing in long queues to cast their ballots. And this is the part most people miss—Yadav argues that these surveys are less about accuracy and more about creating a psychological impact, potentially pressuring election officials. He even questioned the sample size and criteria, pointing out that neither has been made public. So, who’s right? The pollsters or Yadav? Let’s dive deeper.
Yadav, a prominent RJD leader, isn’t one to live in ‘false optimism’ or ‘misunderstanding.’ Instead, he’s banking on ground-level feedback collected by the Mahagathbandhan after voting ended. According to him, the response has been overwhelmingly positive, even surpassing the feedback from the 1995 elections. He’s confident that change is coming, boldly declaring that the oath ceremony will be held on November 18. But is this just wishful thinking, or does he have a point? After all, exit polls have been wrong before—sometimes spectacularly so.
Take the 2025 Bihar exit polls, for instance. Dainik Bhaskar predicted 145-160 seats for the NDA, while the Matrize Exit Poll forecast a slightly higher range of 147-167 seats. The People's Pulse, on the other hand, gave the NDA 133-159 seats. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan was projected to win anywhere from 70 to 101 seats, with Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj party trailing far behind. These numbers are based on surveys conducted as voters left polling stations, but Yadav argues that such methods are flawed and lack transparency.
Here’s the controversial question: Are exit polls a reliable predictor of election outcomes, or are they a tool to influence public perception? Yadav clearly believes the latter, and he’s not alone in his skepticism. Exit polls, while widely reported, are not infallible. History is littered with examples where they’ve missed the mark entirely. So, as we await the official vote count on November 14, it’s worth asking: Should we take these projections at face value, or is there more to the story than meets the eye?
What do you think? Are exit polls a trustworthy indicator, or do they serve a different purpose altogether? Let us know in the comments below—we’d love to hear your take on this heated debate!
